The Greek people overwhelmingly rejected more austerity from their European lenders, sending shockwaves throughout Europe and the world. The overwhelming results— which came as a surprise even to members of the Syriza ruling party— are a blow to the insistence of European leaders— namely German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem and German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble– who have been maintaining a hard line with Tsipras’ government for months.
The big question remains on everyone’s mind— Now what?
Tsipras has promised voters a deal with creditors within 48 hours and has promised that banks will open on Tuesday with a solid “no” vote in hand.
Eurozone finance ministers have scheduled a call on Monday morning to discuss the matter. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Paris on Monday for talks with French President Francois Hollande to map out the way forward for Greece.
A former United States Ambassador to Greece, R. Nicholas Burns wasn’t optimistic.
After accusing EU of blackmail, Tsipras has little leverage with Merkel. EU won't bend much. Default and Grexit still possible. #Greece
— Nicholas Burns (@RNicholasBurns) July 5, 2015
There is optimism in Greece that there could be a breakthrough with the creditors. Marina Stevis of the Wall Street Journal confirmed this.
What I'm getting from people who voted "no" is that they overwhelmingly believe Tsipras & his promise of a new negotiation starting tomorrow
— Matina Stevis (@MatinaStevis) July 5, 2015
Many global economists are cautious and others expressed worries for Greece’s future, while the government argues it has a better bargaining position.
Wolf Piccoli of Teneo Intelligence believes that there is now a 75% that Greece will eventually leave the eurozone.
“This will further raise doubts over whether all of Greece’s big commercial banks will be able to survive the coming week; their remaining liquidity buffers are likely to last until Tuesday, at best. Within the ECB, there may even be a push to consider a further increase in the haircut on the collateral accepted in return for ELA access, although Monday may be too early for such a move given that the further course of negotiations is still unclear.”
Piccoli also predicts that Greece’s creditors will maintain a hard line:
“Once Athens and its lenders resume talks, Tsipras is likely to point to the IMF’s recent debt sustainability analysis (which has effectively once more made the case for debt relief) and tonight’s “No” vote. But calls to respect the democratic will of the Greek people and offer a better deal will likely be answered by reference to the – in substance very different – democratic will in creditor countries.
“Instead, the lenders will likely argue that given the by now worsened economic situation, further efforts will be required to get the country back on track. This may translate into further cuts and/or additional revenue-raising measures to meet primary surplus targets.”
Kathleen Brooks of Forex.com also fears for Greece’s banking sector.
“A win for the No camp also makes negotiations with Greece’s creditors substantially harder, and thus, it cannot be assumed that Greece will get any more money from the EU, ECB or IMF. This makes further defaults, including on some large sums owed to the ECB later this month, even more likely. Overall, those who thought the chances of Grexit were at 60% last week, must now be revising them up to 80%.”
Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The government can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Germany’s Christian Social Union called Tsipras a liar in a Tweet.
Tsipras und seine Linksregierung haben das Volk belogen und vorgegaukelt, es gäbe Euros ohne Reformen. #Greferendum pic.twitter.com/jRzBLgxr9w
— CSU (@CSU) July 5, 2015
A senior German conservative lawmaker Hans Michelbach said that Greece might be better off outside the single currency after referendum results showed the country rejected euro zone bailout terms.
“Now one has to ask the question whether Greece would not be better off outside the euro zone,” said Michelbach, a hardline member of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) and part of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative bloc.
“Unfortunately, Greece has chosen a path of isolation,” he said, adding that if a ‘No’ vote won, as results indicate, he saw no basis for further aid for Greece.
German media and politicians have begin calling on Angela Merkel to begin organizing a Greek exit from the Eurozone, or a Grexit.
7 comments
Let’s get serious here…I realize bankers will be bankers and this is all about money…but…this is not the fault of the Greek people or Greece and surely you recognize that. Greece has not “chosen” any path of isolation but rather, you are attempting to slam down your iron fist and back out of the truth which you are well aware of. These “mis-calculations” were not their faults and they were being shoved down the throats of the Greek people with your instance that they swallow or face consequences. Shame on you!!
There was never any intention of Greece leaving the Euro…unless, you want to push them out…to punish them and flex your muscles. How pathetic!!
Stand up like real men and women…and do the right thing. The WORLD IS WATCHING…and we’re not all idiots!
If the Germans put the boots to Greece this week, Europe will explode. Despite what the CSU or anyone else in Germany says, which I think is just requisite posturing.
Could Merkel possibly be getting heat from above?
I voted no after much deliberation. I was literally in tears while I voted. Everyone in my immediate circle voted yes and when I told them that I would vote no, they reacted to me as if I’m a mental case. When I voted no, I was not voting no to the euro, I was voting no to the measures being imposed by our creditors because they do not work and have not worked over the past 5 years. I work 40+ hrs per week as does my husband. We pay our taxes and have not complained about the raises in taxes in recent years due to the measures. I’m not looking for a free lunch from the EU. I’m not an expert in economics but I recall in basic economics classes being taught that in a recession you increase the cash flow you don’t restrict it. I’m not a supporter of any political party, in fact. I have absolutely no trust in any of our politicians. I would like to see reforms in the system, substantial reforms in fact, reforms that the previous administration had 4+ years under the EU watch, to make but did not; they did not even make a dent in the status quo. If I had voted yes, the previous administration would have probably come back into power and they proved to be worthless. I think that everyone in the world needs to realize how hard it was for most Greeks to make the decision to vote NO. We did not do so lightheartedly! We did not vote no to the euro. If you see the polls, 87% of Greeks are in favor of the euro. We want fair but at the same time substantial reforms that will help boost our economy in the long run so that our children will seek work within Greece and not have to leave to go to other countries to realize their dreams!
I watched in horror as the results came in last night of the no vote and what the european response to it would be. However, after some introspection I realised that they couldn’t be anything but ‘no’. For five years European policies and austerity measures have wiped out the middle class who are now a dwindling minority. With unemployment at around 60 percent among the youth, bringing in yet another round of austerity measures would have only increased it. Have European leaders gone mad? These results only reflect their own inadequacies and vindictive stance that they have taken towards a country when that stance should should have been taken much earlier towards their banking institutions who were basically gambling with other people’s money. I am not against bankers but they are the ones who created this mess. It is time that European leaders face this fact and start being more forgiving with the people of Europe who work hard day in and day out to earn their daily bread.
The Germans tried to militarily dominate Europe with tanks and right wing ideology, not once, but twice. Now they try to dominate using fiscal might. But no one wants a Europe dominated by Germany. This is, as far as I see it, their first attempt at warring with another nation through purely financial means.
Economic warfare from the Germans, not totally unexpected though. Had we thrown the bankers to the wall for their mismanagement when this first started, the world would be in a different state.
The time since it has taken to do nothing, could’ve really done something to make everyone’s life better in the long run. The EU are going about this the wrong way for the poor and middle class, but the right way for the greedy super rich, I’d sincerely like a list of who these people are, so that I can try and understand “why”, they are more important than the vast majority of us all, and how it is that they can control people like Merkel.